Canada narrows choice for new submarines to German, South Korean bidders

[Dr Strangelove]

South Korea sweetens submarine bid, will manufacture armoured vehicles in Canada if chosen

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

South Korea's Hanwha showcases submarine as Ottawa mulls multibillion-dollar contract

Showboating confirmed.

[Dr Strangelove]

German submarine bid promises Canada $86B economic boost and tens of thousands of jobs
What Germany is promising Canada — the core numbers
$86 billion boost to Canada’s GDP over the lifetime of the program.

654,000+ job‑years of employment (full‑time equivalents).

Up to 50,000 jobs per year during the first five years after contract award.

Many investments would begin within two years of Ottawa’s decision.

These figures come from economic-impact modelling reviewed by CBC/Radio‑Canada and referenced publicly by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius at CANSEC 2026.
What Germany is offering beyond the submarines
The TKMS (ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems) proposal includes a broad industrial package designed to appeal to Ottawa’s demand for domestic economic benefits:

Two Canadian maintenance facilities (one on each coast), based on Norway’s existing 212CD support centre.

Canadian production of propulsion systems and submarine batteries.

New manufacturing centres for:

Heavy torpedoes

Anti‑torpedo systems

Potential hypersonic missile testing and possibly production

Partnerships with four Indigenous development organizations.

Investments tied to critical minerals, ports, energy infrastructure, and advanced sensors/AI.

Germany is explicitly linking the offer to Arctic defence, NATO integration, and long‑term strategic cooperation with Canada.

[al_keda]

Germany does have a good reputation when it comes to below sea shipping.

[Dr Strangelove]

Germany pledges 4 submarines by 2036 in high-stakes pitch to Canada
Four submarines delivered by 2036
Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, told CBC that TKMS can deliver four Type 212CD submarines by 2036, matching South Korea’s earlier promise of delivery by 2035.
To do this, Germany and Norway would give up one submarine each from their own production slots, with the next two boats prioritized for Canada.

This is a major shift—TKMS had previously been vague about timelines.

Massive Economic Package
Germany’s bid includes one of the largest foreign industrial investment packages Canada has ever been offered:

$86 billion GDP boost over the life of the program

654,000+ job‑years of employment

Up to 50,000 jobs per year in the first five years

Front‑loaded investments starting within two years of contract award

Projects spanning shipbuilding, critical minerals, ports, energy, manufacturing, and missile systems

This is designed to counter South Korea’s aggressive industrial pitch.

[Dr Strangelove]

South Korea's Hanwha Ocean: Offers the KSS-III submarine, emphasizing speed of delivery (four boats by 2035) and significant industrial investment within Canada (2:19-3:15).
The German-Norwegian Partnership: Proposes the Type 212CD submarine. In a significant move, Germany has offered to delay its own delivery slots to prioritize Canada (0:05). This option focuses on long-term integration into a shared Arctic and North Atlantic fleet, providing standardized training, maintenance, and supply chains with European allies (3:14-4:39).
Key Strategic Considerations:

Geopolitics: The decision is framed as part of a broader trend where Canada is strengthening defense ties with European middle powers like Germany, Norway, and Sweden amid fluctuating relations with the United States (0:35-1:03, 7:37-8:14).
Technological Edge: The Type 212CD utilizes Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP), a stealth technology critical for operating in the challenging Arctic environment, allowing vessels to remain submerged for extended periods (4:47-5:39).
Long-term Impact: The hosts argue that this procurement is not just about hardware, but about choosing a security direction for the next 40 years, potentially signaling a move toward a more independent, multi-directional defense posture within NATO (9:57-11:42).

Think Newport News would pause their que for Canadian orders? They can't even handle their OWN orders and China has eaten their lunch:



China's Dominance: China has drastically expanded its order book from 51% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025. While South Korea and Japan have seen their market shares decline to 16.6% and 8.9% respectively, they have remained relatively stable, meaning China is capturing the majority of new global growth (1:34-2:13).
Market Trends: The year 2025 was described as a "tale of two halves." The first half was marked by investor caution due to U.S. policy efforts targeting Chinese shipbuilding, while the second half saw a rebound in ordering activity (2:34-3:25).
The Engine Choke Point: A critical challenge in the industry is the production of dual-fuel engines (capable of using LNG, methane, or ammonia). As the industry pushes toward IMO 2050 carbon neutrality, these specialized engines have become a major manufacturing bottleneck (3:25-4:17).
Sector Breakdown:
Bulkers: Remain the largest fleet sector, with China controlling 77.3% of the current order book (8:18-9:13).
Tankers: The sector saw an increase in orders, with China and South Korea remaining the primary builders (9:44-10:46).
Containers: Despite a slowdown in deliveries, the order-to-fleet ratio grew to 34.5%, with a strong focus on ultra-large container vessels (11:24-12:07).
Rising Costs & Infrastructure: Shipyards are struggling with inflation and increased material/labor costs, which are outpacing new build prices. Japan, in particular, is grappling with aging infrastructure and labor shortages, similar to challenges long faced by the U.S. (15:29-16:00, 23:14-24:04).
Future Outlook: BRS predicts a potential "supercycle" in shipbuilding, driven by the need to replace aging, non-economical vessels built between 2005 and 2010. The 2026 outlook estimates around 165 million dead weight tons in new orders (26:17-28:47).

[Dr Strangelove]

[testerone]

We should tell them all about buying used submarines....