Politalk.ca

Looks like it's locked up for the Liberals in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which we'd thought would be a tight race but it has turned into a romp for the Liberals, who are at nearly 50% of the vote.

This is a very bad result for the CPC, who had held this riding since 2018 and won it with 34% of the vote last election but have shed 20%+ of their vote tonight, largely to the LPC

Running in third in 2 races with less than 20% support? 13.6% in Quebec riding? Holy collapse.

Liberals sweep 3 federal byelections in Ontario, Quebec and B.C., CBC News projects

Scott Reid: "A year and a half ago, Conservatives said, you know what, we can replay the next election. This is a victory delayed, not denied. And so we can just hold our spot. We can stand still. We can retain this vote. And then we can win the next election. That strategy looks to be in ash tonight."

National Narrative: The speaker attributes the Liberal success largely to Mark Carney's recent, highly publicized rejection of trade deal demands from Donald Trump, which resonated with a Canadian electorate generally unfavorable toward Trump (0:31-1:06).
Political Context: The unpopularity of the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (often polling negatively) and his perceived alignment with Trump-like rhetoric is cited as a major disadvantage for the Conservative Party (2:27-3:15, 8:17-8:50).
By-election Highlights:

Beaches-East York: While the Liberals won with 55.7% of the vote, the NDP saw a notable increase in support, jumping from 6.9% in the 2025 election to 25.8%, which the NDP leader Avi Lewis described as a return to "fighting form" (3:42-4:24, 4:52-5:10).
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: The Conservative Party suffered a dramatic collapse in this riding, falling from a 2025 victory to third place with 12.5% of the vote, while the Liberals rose to 51.3% (5:44-6:36).
Future Outlook:

Strategists, including conservative analyst Fred Delorey, acknowledge that the current Conservative strategy is failing to connect, necessitating a fundamental rethink before upcoming by-elections (9:29-10:20).
The speaker suggests the Conservative Party is currently in a "no man's land," struggling to differentiate itself from a right-of-center Liberal government while simultaneously attempting to manage its internal divide regarding Donald Trump (13:18-14:14).


Trumps attacks on Canada has galvanized the Liberal party and the cons have imploded by rudderless leadership. The residuals have gone to the greens/NDP but nowhere near the numbers needed for them to spark momentum required to challenge for control. The more Trump bloviates the stronger the trend and it is already overwhelming.